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Embracing Change and Chance; How to Manage Forecasts With Uncertainty

A new challenge for consumer-driven demand forecasting

20May

A common definition of forecasting is that it is a process that has as its objective the prediction of future events or conditions. More precisely, forecasting attempts to predict change in the presence of uncertainty.

Demand Forecasting is all about change and chance. If future events represented only a quantifiable change from historical events, future events or chance conditions could be readily predicted through mathematical projections of historical patterns for future time periods. Methodologies that are used to describe historical events with mathematical equations (or methods) for the purpose of predicting future events prımarıly wıth numbers are classified as quantitative projection techniques. However, there is much more to forecasting than projecting past trends. For example, informed judgment in the presence of uncertainty is also a key ıngredıent ın the forecastıng process.

The attached white paper describes:

  • A new role of demand forecasters in a modern, demand-driven supply chain
  • How, when, where and by whom the demand forecasting job is performed
  • Why it is a necessary discipline for supply chain planners to become familiar with
  • The systematic steps for an effective demand forecasting process in supply chain organizations.
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