Why Predictive Analytics Fail...and What You Can do to Succeed When All Hell Breaks Loose
This presentation will address the reasons why even the most sophisticated predictive analytics can fail, sometimes spectacularly. Ken will tell the story of predictive modeling failures from the subprime mortgage meltdown, highlighting feedback effects and cognitive dissonance as key risk factors, and offer suggestions about controls, governance, intuition, and judgment.
Ken is Chief of Investment Analytics, Investor Relations Executive, and a co-founder of Capital Bank Financial Corp, where he is also responsible for strategic planning and enterprise stress-testing. He spent 15 years at Morgan Stanley as an equity research analyst covering financial services companies and is author of "Stalking the Black Swan: Research and Decision-making in a World of Extreme Volatility." A honors graduate of University of Chicago Booth School of Business and former US Army officer, Ken has earned the CPA, CFA, and Financial RIsk Manager designations.